Pricedger — Level 2
Prediction Market Trader
You've learned the rules. Now learn the game.
A free 13-email course in probability, pricing, edge, risk, and portfolio thinking for Kalshi and Polymarket traders.
Level 1 taught you how prediction markets work. Level 2 teaches you how to analyze them — how to turn "I think" into a number, that number into a price, and that price into a decision you can size, track, and improve.
What you'll learn
Thirteen lessons, one skill: thinking in probabilities.
- Estimate probabilities from base rates and evidence
- Turn your view into a price — and compare it to the market's
- Understand what fees and spreads do to your edge
- Read an order book and account for slippage
- Size positions so one bad call can't sink you
- Use the Kelly criterion, carefully
- Measure your calibration with Brier scores
- Spot correlated positions hiding in your portfolio
- Find relationships between markets that have to agree
Every lesson ends with a Trader's Challenge. The next email walks through the answer.
Free. One email a day. No finance degree required. No crystal ball included.