Track record
Every published call is written down before the event, with the price we would have paid. When the exchange settles the market, the call is scored — right or wrong. Published calls are never edited or removed after the fact. (Prototype sandbox calls from 20 September 2026, logged before the public record began, were cleared.)
0 of 0 settled calls
Lower is better · 0.25 = coin flip
Lower is better
Forecast vs. reality
Reliability curve
A perfectly honest forecaster sits on the dashed line: when it says 70%, the thing happens 70% of the time. Points below the line mean the call was over-confident.
The curve appears once enough calls have settled.
Accuracy by category
Where settled calls came in under their stated probability, new calls in that category are automatically pulled back toward even before any edge is claimed.
No settled calls yet, so nothing is being adjusted.
Every call, newest first
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