Polymarket (Global)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?
5.5%
Updated 47m ago · Settles Feb 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
3¢
Bid 2¢ · Ask 3¢
Pricedger fair probability
2%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+0.5 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
216,275
Fine-print risk
2/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this m…
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