Polymarket (Global)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
December 31, 2026
Updated 41m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
5¢
Bid 4¢ · Ask 5¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+3.0 pts
On NO after fees · medium confidence
Volume
796,498
Fine-print risk
54/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agre…
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