Polymarket (Global)
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?
December 31
Updated 22m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
31¢
Bid 22¢ · Ask 39¢
Pricedger fair probability
29%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-6.9 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
50,659
Fine-print risk
70/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Israel by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT, GMT+3). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Israeli ground territory. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surfac…
Full clause-by-clause forensic audit is available inside the terminal.
Whale flow & Smart Money Divergence
See whether large traders are positioning with or against the price move on this contract.
Model ensemble & AI Deep Dive
Quant, base-rate and AI estimates compared on one scale, with clause-level fine-print analysis.
Quarter-Kelly paper sizing
Exact stake, expected value and scenario matrix for your bankroll — paper trading only.
Locked previews show illustrative sample figures.
The full Pricedger analysis is inside the terminal
Visible Ensemble consensus, AI Deep Dive with clause-by-clause fine print, whale flow and Smart Money Divergence, cross-exchange gaps, price history and quarter-Kelly paper sizing. 7-day free trial, no card required.
See the full Pricedger analysisResearch and paper trading only — not financial advice. Model estimates can be wrong. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Methodology