Polymarket (Global)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
↑4k
Updated 1h ago · Settles Jan 1, 27 · archived
Polymarket (Global) YES
99¢
Bid 98¢ · Ask 100¢
Pricedger fair probability
99%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-1.0 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
247,542
Fine-print risk
8/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (…
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