Polymarket (Global)
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
Hormuz Agreement; R Senate
Updated 8m ago · Settles Nov 4, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
5¢
Bid 5¢ · Ask 5¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+4.0 pts
On NO after fees · medium confidence
Volume
29,004
Fine-print risk
50/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a Hormuz Agreement is not announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No" immediately. Hormuz Agreement: A "Hormuz Agreement" wi…
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