Polymarket (Global)
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
Hormuz Agreement; R Senate
Updated 55m ago · Settles Nov 4, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
4¢
Bid 4¢ · Ask 4¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+3.0 pts
On NO after fees · medium confidence
Volume
165,606
Fine-print risk
50/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; R Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; D Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United State…
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