Polymarket (Global)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
December 31
Updated 25m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
5¢
Bid 3¢ · Ask 6¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
872,021
Fine-print risk
36/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orde…
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