Polymarket (Global)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
December 31
Updated 4m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
4¢
Bid 4¢ · Ask 4¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+3.0 pts
On NO after fees · medium confidence
Volume
247,982
Fine-print risk
16/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign terr…
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