Polymarket (Global)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Updated 3m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
16¢
Bid 15¢ · Ask 16¢
Pricedger fair probability
13%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.3 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
72,505,858
Fine-print risk
16/100
Resolution-rule audit
The full Pricedger analysis is inside the terminal
Visible Ensemble consensus, AI Deep Dive with clause-by-clause fine print, whale flow and Smart Money Divergence, cross-exchange gaps, price history and quarter-Kelly paper sizing. 7-day free trial, no card required.
See the full Pricedger analysisResearch and paper trading only — not financial advice. Model estimates can be wrong. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Methodology