Polymarket (Global)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Updated 38m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
3¢
Bid 2¢ · Ask 3¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
1,441,542
Fine-print risk
30/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the…
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