Polymarket (Global)
Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
Updated 12m ago · Settles Feb 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
90¢
Bid 89¢ · Ask 91¢
Pricedger fair probability
91%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-0.2 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
40,658
Fine-print risk
2/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor S…
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