Polymarket (Global)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
4.25%
Updated just now · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
50¢
Bid 47¢ · Ask 53¢
Pricedger fair probability
50%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-3.0 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
511,934
Fine-print risk
2/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 20…
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