Polymarket (Global)
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
Updated 25m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
11¢
Bid 10¢ · Ask 11¢
Pricedger fair probability
7%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.7 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
281,513
Fine-print risk
36/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final…
Full clause-by-clause forensic audit is available inside the terminal.
Whale flow & Smart Money Divergence
See whether large traders are positioning with or against the price move on this contract.
Model ensemble & AI Deep Dive
Quant, base-rate and AI estimates compared on one scale, with clause-level fine-print analysis.
Quarter-Kelly paper sizing
Exact stake, expected value and scenario matrix for your bankroll — paper trading only.
Locked previews show illustrative sample figures.
The full Pricedger analysis is inside the terminal
Visible Ensemble consensus, AI Deep Dive with clause-by-clause fine print, whale flow and Smart Money Divergence, cross-exchange gaps, price history and quarter-Kelly paper sizing. 7-day free trial, no card required.
See the full Pricedger analysisResearch and paper trading only — not financial advice. Model estimates can be wrong. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Methodology