Polymarket (Global)
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?
No return before November 1, 2026
Updated 32m ago · Settles Nov 1, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
68¢
Bid 67¢ · Ask 68¢
Pricedger fair probability
69%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+0.5 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
35,157
Fine-print risk
12/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark belo…
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