Polymarket (Global)
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190
Updated 46m ago · Settles Nov 4, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
28¢
Bid 27¢ · Ask 28¢
Pricedger fair probability
25%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.5 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
54,444
Fine-print risk
46/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff…
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