Polymarket (Global)
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?
Over 2.5
Updated 40m ago · Settles Apr 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
86¢
Bid 84¢ · Ask 87¢
Pricedger fair probability
88%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+0.6 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
33,685
Fine-print risk
2/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27. The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value…
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