Polymarket (Global)
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?
45%+
Updated 5m ago · Settles Dec 31, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
100¢
Bid 99¢ · Ask 100¢
Pricedger fair probability
99%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
0.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
47,144
Fine-print risk
22/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labe…
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