Polymarket (Global)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?
Updated 15m ago · Settles Jul 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
13¢
Bid 12¢ · Ask 14¢
Pricedger fair probability
11%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.2 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
47,855
Fine-print risk
40/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical author…
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