Polymarket (Global)
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
Updated 4m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
71¢
Bid 67¢ · Ask 74¢
Pricedger fair probability
72%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-2.3 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
40,032
Fine-print risk
46/100
Resolution-rule audit
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