Polymarket (Global)
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?
5.25%
Updated 10m ago · Settles Dec 31, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
44¢
Bid 42¢ · Ask 46¢
Pricedger fair probability
44%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-1.9 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
31,518
Fine-print risk
2/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not…
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