Polymarket (Global)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
December 31, 2026
Updated 37m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
6¢
Bid 5¢ · Ask 6¢
Pricedger fair probability
2%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+3.1 pts
On NO after fees · medium confidence
Volume
599,128
Fine-print risk
38/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that cou…
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