Polymarket (Global)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
December 31, 2026
Updated 2m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
6¢
Bid 5¢ · Ask 6¢
Pricedger fair probability
2%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+3.1 pts
On NO after fees · medium confidence
Volume
389,582
Fine-print risk
16/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” o…
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