Polymarket (Global)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
December 31
Updated 1h ago · Settles Jan 1, 27 · archived
Polymarket (Global) YES
22¢
Bid 21¢ · Ask 22¢
Pricedger fair probability
19%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.8 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
174,815
Fine-print risk
58/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) b…
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