Polymarket (Global)
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?
October 31
Updated 57m ago · Settles Nov 1, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
9¢
Bid 8¢ · Ask 10¢
Pricedger fair probability
6%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.3 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
43,482
Fine-print risk
58/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.450545° N, 37.181493° E in Novyi Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64b…
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