Polymarket (Global)
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?
December 31
Updated just now · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
23¢
Bid 22¢ · Ask 24¢
Pricedger fair probability
21%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.2 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
60,088
Fine-print risk
58/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de6…
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