Polymarket (Global)
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?
December 31
Updated 1h ago · Settles Jan 1, 27 · archived
Polymarket (Global) YES
78¢
Bid 77¢ · Ask 79¢
Pricedger fair probability
80%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.2 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
30,211
Fine-print risk
58/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by t…
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