Polymarket (Global)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?
December 31
Updated 22m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
17¢
Bid 15¢ · Ask 19¢
Pricedger fair probability
14%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+0.6 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
72,139
Fine-print risk
54/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, (50.284808° N, 36.938428° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Vovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by th…
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