Polymarket (Global)
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?
December 31
Updated 7m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
32¢
Bid 31¢ · Ask 32¢
Pricedger fair probability
30%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
64,422
Fine-print risk
52/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by…
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