Polymarket (Global)
Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?
No Next Minister by Feb 28
Updated 5m ago · Settles Mar 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
41¢
Bid 40¢ · Ask 42¢
Pricedger fair probability
40%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-0.5 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
43,847
Fine-print risk
46/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minist…
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