Polymarket (Global)
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?
No Next Minister by Feb 28
Updated 32m ago · Settles Mar 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
32¢
Bid 30¢ · Ask 34¢
Pricedger fair probability
31%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-0.9 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
33,907
Fine-print risk
46/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defe…
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