Polymarket (Global)
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
Greater than 8
Updated 18m ago · Settles Jul 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
28¢
Bid 26¢ · Ask 30¢
Pricedger fair probability
26%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-0.2 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
45,977
Fine-print risk
12/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026. All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count t…
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