Polymarket (Global)
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
Moonshot
Updated 22m ago · Settles Oct 31, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
10¢
Bid 9¢ · Ask 11¢
Pricedger fair probability
8%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.4 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
34,197
Fine-print risk
12/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. C…
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