Polymarket (Global)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Updated 15m ago · Settles Oct 26, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
19¢
Bid 18¢ · Ask 19¢
Pricedger fair probability
16%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.3 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
31,364,804
Fine-print risk
30/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of c…
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