Polymarket (Global)
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
<20
Updated 7m ago · Settles Oct 28, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
15¢
Bid 14¢ · Ask 15¢
Pricedger fair probability
11%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.7 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
92,181
Fine-print risk
34/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party p…
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