Polymarket (Global)
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?
December 31
Updated 4m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
6¢
Bid 5¢ · Ask 6¢
Pricedger fair probability
3%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.2 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
33,811
Fine-print risk
42/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jordan Bardella leaves the National Rally by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes leaving the National Rally, affiliating with any other political party, or renouncing National Rally and becoming an independent. An official announcement from Bardella stating that he is leaving National Rally will qualify, regardless of when t…
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