Polymarket (Global)
Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?
15+
Updated 23m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
0¢
Bid 0¢ · Ask 0¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.0 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
197,775
Fine-print risk
40/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of Decem…
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