Polymarket (Global)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
December 31
Updated 4m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
14¢
Bid 13¢ · Ask 14¢
Pricedger fair probability
11%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.4 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
123,799
Fine-print risk
36/100
Resolution-rule audit
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