Polymarket (Global)
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
December 31, 2026
Updated 15m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
4¢
Bid 3¢ · Ask 5¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
97,525
Fine-print risk
36/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980…
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