Polymarket (Global)
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Updated 5m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
10¢
Bid 9¢ · Ask 11¢
Pricedger fair probability
7%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.2 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
604,386
Fine-print risk
30/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw…
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