Polymarket (Global)
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?
September 30
Updated 2m ago · Settles Oct 31, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
100¢
Bid 100¢ · Ask 100¢
Pricedger fair probability
99%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
164,608
Fine-print risk
78/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Qualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tun…
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