Polymarket (Global)
Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?
Iliana Iotova
Updated 31m ago · Settles Oct 25, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
90¢
Bid 85¢ · Ask 94¢
Pricedger fair probability
93%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-0.9 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
46,870
Fine-print risk
34/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they…
Full clause-by-clause forensic audit is available inside the terminal.
Whale flow & Smart Money Divergence
See whether large traders are positioning with or against the price move on this contract.
Model ensemble & AI Deep Dive
Quant, base-rate and AI estimates compared on one scale, with clause-level fine-print analysis.
Quarter-Kelly paper sizing
Exact stake, expected value and scenario matrix for your bankroll — paper trading only.
Locked previews show illustrative sample figures.
The full Pricedger analysis is inside the terminal
Visible Ensemble consensus, AI Deep Dive with clause-by-clause fine print, whale flow and Smart Money Divergence, cross-exchange gaps, price history and quarter-Kelly paper sizing. 7-day free trial, no card required.
See the full Pricedger analysisResearch and paper trading only — not financial advice. Model estimates can be wrong. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Methodology