Polymarket (Global)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
December 31
Updated 4m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
7¢
Bid 6¢ · Ask 8¢
Pricedger fair probability
4%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.6 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
2,086,910
Fine-print risk
46/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For…
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