Polymarket (Global)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
December 31, 2026
Updated 45m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
12¢
Bid 11¢ · Ask 12¢
Pricedger fair probability
9%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.8 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
1,699,733
Fine-print risk
46/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or comp…
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