Polymarket (Global)
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?
November 9–November 15
Updated 17m ago · Settles Nov 16, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
65¢
Bid 64¢ · Ask 65¢
Pricedger fair probability
65%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+0.4 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
44,833
Fine-print risk
44/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model re…
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