Polymarket (Global)
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
Gadi Eizenkot
Updated 40m ago · Settles Oct 28, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
62¢
Bid 60¢ · Ask 63¢
Pricedger fair probability
63%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-0.5 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
49,051
Fine-print risk
46/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election. To co…
Full clause-by-clause forensic audit is available inside the terminal.
Whale flow & Smart Money Divergence
See whether large traders are positioning with or against the price move on this contract.
Model ensemble & AI Deep Dive
Quant, base-rate and AI estimates compared on one scale, with clause-level fine-print analysis.
Quarter-Kelly paper sizing
Exact stake, expected value and scenario matrix for your bankroll — paper trading only.
Locked previews show illustrative sample figures.
The full Pricedger analysis is inside the terminal
Visible Ensemble consensus, AI Deep Dive with clause-by-clause fine print, whale flow and Smart Money Divergence, cross-exchange gaps, price history and quarter-Kelly paper sizing. 7-day free trial, no card required.
See the full Pricedger analysisResearch and paper trading only — not financial advice. Model estimates can be wrong. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Methodology