Polymarket (Global)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%
Updated 36m ago · Settles Oct 26, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
34¢
Bid 33¢ · Ask 35¢
Pricedger fair probability
33%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+0.4 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
39,782
Fine-print risk
40/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and s…
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