Polymarket (Global)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?
November 30, 2026
Updated 1h ago · Settles Dec 1, 26 · archived
Polymarket (Global) YES
97¢
Bid 96¢ · Ask 98¢
Pricedger fair probability
99%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.0 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
82,698
Fine-print risk
38/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positiv…
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