Polymarket (Global)
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?
October 31
Updated 14m ago · Settles Nov 1, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
2¢
Bid 1¢ · Ask 2¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
0.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
41,075
Fine-print risk
46/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military con…
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